Whether Bitcoin is "too expensive" or "too cheap" depends on the thesis you start from. The Bitcoin Valuation Lab brings eight publicly documented valuation models together in one interactive cockpit: you weight the models, change the assumptions and see where your personal fair value sits against the current price.
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Each model derives its own fair value from its own assumptions. The spread between the models is intentional: scarcity, cost basis, time trend, network effect, store of value, production cost, cyclicality and institutional demand are deliberately different lenses. Large gaps are not a bug; they are the point of the exercise.
Values Bitcoin purely on supply scarcity: the ratio of existing stock to annual new issuance. Every halving makes that ratio jump. The model has been considered outdated since 2021 and is therefore deliberately discounted in the Lab.
Limitation: Supply-side only; demand is ignored entirely.
The realized price is the average price at which each Bitcoin last moved, i.e. the market's cost basis. MVRV relates the current price to it: low readings have historically marked cycle bottoms, high readings euphoria.
Limitation: Only two to three complete market cycles as a data basis.
Describes the price path as a long-term adoption process following a power law over time since the genesis block. On a log-log scale an almost straight line; individual cycles are deliberately ignored.
Limitation: Purely time-based; no link to supply, demand or the macro environment.
The value of a network grows disproportionately with the number of its active participants. Active on-chain addresses serve as a proxy for real usage of the Bitcoin network.
Limitation: Addresses are a blurry proxy: one person, many addresses; one exchange, one address.
Asks what share of gold's global store-of-value role Bitcoin could take over in the long run. Especially transparent, which is why the Lab also shows it as a sensitivity matrix.
Limitation: Assumes Bitcoin and gold compete for the same investor demand.
Treats mining costs for electricity, hardware and operations as a cost floor, analogous to classic commodity models. Not a hard price floor, but a useful stress indicator.
Limitation: Costs vary widely with electricity prices, hardware and location.
Extrapolates from the last cycle high and accounts for historically diminishing cycle gains. Calibrated purely in hindsight, so a mirror of the past rather than a view forward.
Limitation: Only three complete cycles; the four-year pattern is not a law of nature.
Translates an assumed allocation of globally managed assets from funds, insurers and pension funds into a potential Bitcoin market value.
Limitation: Both inputs are estimates; the model says nothing about timing.
Bear, Base, Bull or Hyper set all 14 assumptions to a coherent world view. Base is the neutral, individually justified starting point.
Every slider explains its definition, range and the reasoning behind its default. Realized price, gold market, allocation rate and more can be set freely.
The weighting is your thesis, not ours. It produces a weighted fair value that is compared with the current spot price.
Today, the next cycle peak or the bottom that follows: the same models, shifted in time and supply. Plus a chart view with the power-law channel since 2010.
All eight models with formula, default and limitations, all 14 sliders, the scenarios and time horizons, plus conflicts of interest and legal notes. Twelve pages, readable without signing in. German language.
No. The Lab is an educational tool. It shows how differently Bitcoin can be valued depending on the thesis, and provides neither a forecast nor a recommendation to buy or sell.
None in particular. The Base default is a neutral, individually justified starting point. The weighting of the models is always the user's own thesis.
To avoid circular reasoning. The eight models are independent anchors; the spot price only serves as the reference for the upside and downside display.
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All Labs tools are for information and educational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments.
