Adoption curve
The adoption curve describes how a new technology spreads: first a few pioneers, then a broad majority, finally the laggards, in the shape of an S.
Explained simply
Every technology passes through the same phases: innovators and early adopters try it out, then adoption tips into the mainstream, and at the end the sceptics arrive. Plotted, this gives an S-curve.
The internet took about ten years from the first browsers to half the population, the smartphone about as long. Digital assets are, by most estimates, still in the front part of the curve.
Where exactly you stand can be read from indicators: user numbers, regulatory framework, offerings from established institutions.
From the familiar world
Online banking: a niche for the tech-savvy in 2000, normal in 2010, standard in 2020. Nobody asks today whether online banking "will catch on". That question is only asked at the start of the curve.
An example
The number of Bitcoin addresses with a balance, the approval of ETFs, the EU regulation MiCA and tokenised funds from major providers mark steps along the curve, each towards the broad majority.
Why it matters
The adoption curve gives clients a framework to place the topic without needing price forecasts. It turns "Is it still early?" into an observable question.
To pass on
„Every technology follows the same S-curve: pioneers first, then everyone. With the internet we were at the front in 1998; with digital assets we are still in the front section today.“
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